Beating the Closing Line
There's a never-ending debate on whether is all luck or part luck and part skill. It's a difficult question to answer, but there's no doubt that luck plays the bigger role. But does that mean skill has no role at all? Most experts and big-time punters seem to disagree.
One of the metrics that bettors rely on to make good returns is the closing line or the closing odd. It refers to the real odds of a game or event, and not what the bookmakers think the odds are.
For example, the odds for an upcoming match between Chelsea and Arsenal could be 1.8 and 2.10 respectively. Now before the match begins, it is revealed that multiple players from Chelsea's starting 11 are not playing. That would lead to a change in the odds, with Arsenal now enjoying 1.8 while Chelsea's odds are 2.10.
What is the closing line?
Getting odds that are better than the final pre-event odds is referred to as "beating the closing line." The phrase "beating the Start Price" also applies to this.
Long-term profits might be expected from bettors who can successfully beat the closing line. But in reality, that's a lot harder to do than it sounds. Unless you have significant experience in the betting markets, beating the closing line may not be easy.
Beating the closing line is as close as it gets to using skill over luck in betting. If you are a long-time bettor, you would have enough experience and insight to predict the closing odds and beat the closing line. But that wouldn't happen unless you dedicate time and energy to understanding how the closing line works and how you can beat it.
Since opening and closing odds are tied to the concept of beating the closing line, it's important to understand these two concepts first.
What are the opening odds & closing odds?
To put it in simple words, bookmakers decide the opening odds while the markets determine the closing odds. Drawing from the last example of Chelsea vs Arsenal, bookmakers may keep Chelsea ahead because of their good form and historical performance. In reality, football matches are not determined by those factors.
If there's an internal rift between the manager and players in Chelsea and the news breaks out, Chelsea's chances of winning go down significantly. There are millions of scenarios where Chelsea's odds of winning can do down significantly. It could be due to internal politics, injuries, red cards and suspensions, transfers, and even the weather.
The closing odds are a reflection of how the betting market has processed everything that has gone down since the publishing of the opening odds. If things have gone down badly for the favorites, they would be the underdogs in the closing odds.
The question of skill
Since favorites can become underdogs in the closing odds, the ability to predict this movement is seen as a key betting skill. Many betting experts claim that it's a learnable skill. If you study the game well enough, you can determine what the closing line would be. That would make your bets more informed and your likelihood of making money will increase.
Betting is not about supporting your favorite team. It's about making the right predictions and understanding the swings of a game. It's also about figuring out how the betting market at large is perceiving a particular game. Since these aspects of betting are more closely related to skill than luck, it highlights the luck vs skill question in sports betting.
Why do odds fluctuate?
Odds can fluctuate for many reasons, and sometimes for no apparent reason at all. Two teams or players could be evenly matched, but the public sentiment could support one significantly more than the other. We see this all the time in individual sports where athletes have a cult following.
Coming back to the question, odds can fluctuate due to a million reasons. Here are some examples that will give you an idea:
· A player gets injured
· An internal rift between teams/players and the management
· Political climate (particularly in international events)
· Personal comments from the players regarding how confident they are of winning
· Social media news, rumors, and gossip
There's no limit to the number of ways due to which odds can fluctuate. Opening odds certainly fluctuate most of the time, but why that happens cannot be said ahead of time.
Since odds fluctuate by nature, it's even more important to understand the impact of these fluctuations.
How to track the closing line value
Several online tools can help you track the closing line value. To do it yourself, the simplest approach is to bet early in the week and watch how the odds shift. If you do this for long enough, you will understand the factors that go into determining the closing odds.
However, tracking the closing line value and beating it is easier said than done. You must start with the assumption that you won't be correct all the time. Several calculations tell us that you only need to beat the closing line around 33% to be profitable in the long run.
Beating and tracking the closing line is a long-term project. If you are in the betting market to make quick bucks, this approach won't work for you. Not only do the results take time to show, but the process of learning itself also takes time.
Conclusion
Understanding these three concepts is crucial for every bettor, beginner, or pro:
1. Opening odds
2. Closing odds
3. Odds fluctuation
While there's nothing you can do about the actual odds, you can make your betting strategy around them. Go aggressive when the odds favor you, and defensive when they don't.
Beating the closing line is all about consistency and time. It can take years of practice and learning to be able to do it effectively. Use closing line tracking tools, study historical analysis, understand market sentiments, and do your calculations to beat the closing line consistently in the long run.